In the 1960s, Nigeria controlled 43% of global palm oil supply. Today, we produce just 1.4 million metric tons and still import ₦600 billion worth yearly to feed our soap, noodle, and biscuit factories. Yet in the red soils of Edo, Ondo, and Cross River, a quiet revolution is brewing. Smallholders are replanting. Okomu and Presco are expanding. Wilmar is betting big. With the global palm oil market projected at $72 billion by 2027, the question is no longer “can Nigeria return?” but “will 2027 politicians choose green gold over black gold?”
THE FALL AND THE FIGHTBACK
Nigeria’s palm oil story is a parable of missed opportunity. Before crude oil, the crop was our forex king. The Eastern Region’s farm settlements and the Western Region’s cooperative mills built schools and roads from palm kernels. Then oil came in 1958. By 1975, Malaysia — which took seedlings from Nigeria’s NIFOR in 1961 — overtook us. Today, Malaysia and Indonesia command 84% of global output.
But the tide is turning. Q1 2026 data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows agriculture grew 1.76%, with oil palm as a standout. Nigeria is now the 5th largest producer globally, though we remain a net importer. The gap between local demand of 2.5m MT and supply of 1.4m MT is the ₦1.2 trillion opportunity.
Table: Nigeria Palm Oil Snapshot Q1 2026
Metric Figure Source
Local Production 1.4m MT NBS
National Demand 2.5m MT MAN
Import Bill 2025 ₦612bn CBN
Global Market Size 2027 $72bn | FAOSTAT
Direct Employment 4m farmers FMARD
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EDO, ONDO, CRIVER: THE NEW FRONTIER
Walk through Ovia North-East LGA in Edo State and you see it: 5-year-old tenera palms replacing wild groves. The Edo State Oil Palm Programme has allocated 120,000 hectares to 12 investors, targeting 300,000 MT by 2030. Governor calls it “our red crude.”
Presco Plc, now majority-owned by SIAT Group, just commissioned a 15,000-hectare expansion and a 60MT/hour mill in Edo. Okomu Oil, listed on NGX, posted ₦34.4bn profit in 2025 — up 87% — from palm oil alone. Their secret? Integration. From nursery to refinery.
In Ondo, the state’s REDD+ programme is trying to balance expansion with forest protection. Over 50,000 smallholders under the CBN’s Anchor Borrowers are intercropping oil palm with cassava to survive the 4-year gestation period. “My father had 2 hectares. I now have 6,” says Mrs. Felicia Akinyemi, chair of Ore Oil Palm Farmers. “But banks still want collateral we don’t have.”
Cross River’s 30,000-hectare cocoa-oil palm belt is Wilmar International’s biggest Nigeria bet. The Singapore giant is building a $200m refinery in Calabar FTZ. The problem? Community land disputes. Three villages in Akamkpa shut down planting in March over compensation. Land, not seedlings, is the real bottleneck.
2027: WILL THE CANDIDATES SEE THE PALM TREES?
With President ’s first term ending May 2027, agriculture is back on the stump. A review of party manifestos shows a split:[Incumbent]
APC: Promises “$10bn agric export fund” and “oil palm belt industrial clusters.” Critics note the 2023-2026 budget allocated just 1.8% to agric vs AU’s 10% Malabo target.
PDP: Is pitching “Green Revolution 2.0” with focus on smallholder mechanization. Their Edo chapter points to Obaseki’s ESOPP as proof of concept.
LP: Wants “state-led commodity boards” and a ban on CPO exports until local refining meets demand. Manufacturers say that would crash investment.
The real test is political will. Malaysia’s Felda scheme succeeded because prime ministers staked careers on it. Nigeria’s Anchor Borrowers spent ₦1.09trn from 2015-2023, yet CBN’s own 2024 audit shows 76% default. Without land reform, subsidized seedlings rot.
Youth see it clearer. At UNIBEN’s Agric Faculty, 300 students just launched “PalmPreneur Club.” “We don’t want oil jobs,” says final-year student Eseosa Omoruyi. “One hectare of hybrid palm gives ₦3m yearly after year 5. That’s better than japa.”
THE EU, THE CLIMATE, AND 4 MILLION FARMERS
Here’s the catch: the world wants our palm oil, but not at the cost of forests. The EU Deforestation Regulation, active since December 2024, blocks imports from land deforested after 2020. RSPO certification now determines market access.
Nigeria has only 7 RSPO-certified mills vs Malaysia’s 144. For 4 million smallholders, certification costs $300/hectare — impossible without aggregation. “If EU shuts us out, China and India will buy,” says Bisi Ogunjobi, VP, Plantation Owners Forum. “But at lower prices. We lose both forest and forex.”
The answer may be jurisdictional certification. Edo State is piloting it: certify the whole state, not individual farms. If it works, Nigeria could leapfrog. If not, our “green gold” stays locked in village mills.
THE ₦1.2 TRILLION VALUE CHAIN GAP
Here’s the absurdity: Nigeria exports crude palm oil but imports ₦1.2trn of finished goods yearly. Breakdown from MAN:
Vegetable Oil: ₦480bn — mostly from Malaysia, refined in Lagos
Soaps/Detergents:* ₦320bn — PZ, Unilever, P&G all import CPO derivatives
Noodles/Biscuits: ₦260bn — palm oil is 20% of Indomie’s input
Cosmetics: ₦140bn — lipstick to cream, all need palm fractions
Why? Refining capacity. Nigeria has 18 refineries but only 5 work at 60% capacity. Power is 40% of cost. “We pay ₦225/kWh on diesel,” laments Henry Agbaje, MD, Sodangi Farms. “Malaysia pays ₦45. How do we compete?”
Dangote Refinery’s 650,000bpd plant was meant to cut energy cost. But petrochemicals for soap are still imported. Until we fix power and build oleochemical plants, we’ll ship CPO at $950/MT and buy back olein at $1,400/MT.
THE STREET MAN’S VERDICT
At Oba Market, Benin City, 5 litres of branded vegetable oil sells for ₦9,500. A year ago: ₦6,200. “Na palm oil dey make soup sweet,” says Mrs. Itohan Osahon, who fries akara. “But if I use imported oil, I no fit gain. If I use local, e dey scarce.”
She’s right. Local CPO trades at ₦1.1m/MT — cheaper than Malaysia’s ₦1.25m/MT landed. The problem is consistency. “Today e dey, tomorrow e no dey,” says Osahon. “How I go plan?”
That’s the final gap: aggregation. Nigeria’s 4m farmers produce 70% of output but sell through middlemen. Brazil solved this with cooperatives. Ghana did it with COCOBOD. Nigeria’s NIFOR has the research. We lack the politics.
WHAT MUST HAPPEN BEFORE 2027
1. Land: States must gazette oil palm belts and digitize titles. Edo’s model should go national.
2. Finance: CBN must move from Anchor Borrowers to “Anchor Processors” — fund mills that offtake from clusters.
3. Power: Give oil palm refineries gas at industrial rate. No refinery survives on diesel.
4. Certification:* FG should subsidize RSPO audit for first 500,000 smallholders. Cost: $150m. Return: $2bn yearly exports.
5. Politics: Any 2027 candidate who ignores agric is not serious. Oil rigs don’t vote. 4m farmers do.
In 1961, Malaysia came to NIFOR for seedlings. In 2026, Nigeria’s best agric students are studying Malaysia’s model. The irony isn’t lost on 72-year-old Pa Sunday Okoro, who still taps palm wine in Uromi. “My father made money from palm. I made small. My son ran to Canada. If government serious, my grandson go return.”
Green gold doesn’t need rigs. It needs rain, reform, and resolve. The trees are already in the ground. The question for 2027: who will water them?